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Andre Johnson 2012 Fantasy Outlook
Andre Johnson is undeniably a stud when he is on the field. Easily a top five WR if he plays all 16 games, but often times he does not.
Already this offseason he has undergone minor surgery for his knee. He hurt both hamstrings last season. In 4 of his 9 seasons, he has failed to play in all 16 games, plus he will be 31 when the season starts.
By no means am I saying Andre Johnson is washed up, but I’m pointing all of these issues out as he is likely a first round pick, or at the very least a high second round pick. While everyone knows the kind of numbers he can put up, the downside comes when he misses games.
For me, my first few picks must be studs with low risk, high potential. With such a history of injuries, I would likely opt for another quality WR instead of Johnson. The other Johnson, Calvin, would be a good place to start. Or you could pass on an early WR and grab a stud at another position and still likely be able to grab maybe a Fitzgerald or a Jennings in the next round.
As much as I love Andre Johnson, I would not gamble on him with a first or early second round pick. Maybe late second round, and no questions asked third round if he is still available (but he won’t be). Let someone else gamble with their early picks, use yours to lock up low risk studs.
Jeremy Maclin Fantasy Outlook 2012
Jeremy Maclin has been a pretty steady performer for the Eagles. Last year was his third in the league, and that is typically a breakout year for wide receivers. He did not have a breakout year, however, and the Eagles fell flat as well.
In 2012 I expect bigger things. The Eagles just reported that he has added seven pounds in the off season and is healthy. Remember last year there was the lockout shortening training camps, but even more so for Maclin was health issues that kept him out even longer.
He had a few impressive games last year, but could not stay healthy for the full season and ended up as a decent but not great wide receiver option for fantasy purposes.
This year, coming in healthy and determined, I expect him to have the breakout year that he did not have last season. Vick loves Maclin, and while Desean Jackson gets much of the press with his big plays, Maclin has the chance to be the better performing option week in and week out.
He has been very consistent, averaging just under 14 yards per catch each season of his career. The Eagles have locked up their top RB, and figure to enter this season with a chip on their shoulders after their poor showing last year.
I like Jeremy Maclin as a high end number two wide out for the 2012 fantasy season, with plenty of upside. He’s a guy that should be available come round five or six this season, and he will bring a ton of value at that spot.
Fantasy Football Quarterback Draft Strategy
Today we are going to look at a fantasy football quarterback draft strategy. The quarterback is arguably the most important position on your team. You would like your quarterback to put up consistently high points, and typically he will be one of the top point getters on your team.
The issue here is that if you take a quarterback too early in the draft, you are going to suffer at other positions. Having a solid draft strategy will allow you to ensure you don’t mortgage one position to nail down the quarterback position.
For our assumptions, we are going to go with standard scoring of one point per 20 yards, 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing TD and -1 points for an interception. If you play in a league that gives 6 points per passing TD, the quarterback will be of even higher value. Also, we are assuming you start one quarterback only.
Looking at the past three seasons in point per reception scoring leagues, on average16 of the top 32 scorers were quarterbacks. In 2009, 7 of the top ten scorers were quarterbacks. It was 8 of 10 in 2010 and 7 of 10 in 2011. The average difference between the top quarterback and the 7th or 8th quarterback in these years was 81 points, so about 5 points per game difference between the top quarterback and the 7th or 8th quarterback.
What that tells me is that there is an extreme amount of depth at the quarterback position. Taking a quarterback in round one or two, for the most part, is not going to pan out. Consider that the difference between the top RB last year and the 10th rated RB last year was 150 points, or double the average for quarterbacks. Wide receivers? The difference there was 125 points from the top to the 10th.
To me, there is no downside to waiting on your quarterback and ensuring you have top position players elsewhere on your squad. Consider the possibilities here. With a mid round first round pick, you could grab Rogers and pass on a Maurice Jones Drew a Ray Rice or a Calvin Johnson. Or you could take one of these top notch studs, and likely find Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Tony Romo and Peyton Manning a few rounds later.
Give it some thought and planning before your draft. Come up with a fantasy football quarterback draft strategy and stick to it. Having a strategy that looks down the line at the whole draft is the key to a great draft.
My Top Fantasy Sleepers 2012
Everyone loves the sleepers. These are guys you pick up later in the drafts that outperform their draft position. Often times these sleepers can mean the difference between winning and losing. Think of Arian Foster being picked in the 8th round, or Cam Newton with a late round flyer last season. My top fantasy sleepers 2012 kicks off with my early favorite sleepers.
My top fantasy sleeper for 2012 is Robert Meacham. This guy has been in the league for four years and has put up good numbers, although consistency has been an issue. A big reason for that is the Saints offense and how much the ball gets spread around. With his move to San Diego, he maintains a top tier quarterback, but moves into a number one WR slot on an offense that figures to throw a lot. He could easily put up solid number one WR numbers, and I love this guy as someone who will be undervalued on draft day.
Demaryius Thomas is my next sleeper pick. Peyton Manning will be throwing him the ball, and that is a nice upgrade from the mess he had to deal with at the QB position last year. There was a lot of hype when he came out in his rookie year, but injuries have slowed him. This is his third season in the NFL, which can be a breakout year for WR’s, plus he has a world class quarterback in Manning. If Thomas can stay healthy he could be a huge bargain.
Kenny Britt is my third wide receiver sleeper. This guy got hurt early on last season, but was the top fantasy WR before the injury. He has huge potential, and only needs to stay healthy and out of trouble. With his injury coming early in the season, he should be fully healed and ready to go when the season starts. Due to his history, he will be overlooked, but if he is healthy and plays the full season, he should be a top ten WR.
Jacob Tamme is next up. Regardless of the other TE on the roster, Manning has history with Tamme. Think back to two years ago when Clark went down, Tamme stepped in and picked up right where Clark left off. Manning loves his TE safety valve, and if you think the only guy on the roster who has caught balls for Manning in games is going to be left on the sidelines, you should think again. Tamme has big upside, and should outplay his draft position easily.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a running back who could easily find himself in the top 15 at his position with regards to fantasy points, but he will not be drafted as high as he should. Part of this is his history of underperforming for fantasy players, but you have to remember that was during his rotational situation in the fantasy wasteland that is the Patriots backfield. With the Bengals, he will be given the ball early and often, and should get a full workload. With their offense starting to gel, teams will not be able to stack the box, but will have to defend the pass. I see him as an upgrade to Cedric Benson, and he should have a big season in Cincinnati this year.
Finally I’m going out on a limb here and naming Carson Palmer as my final pick for top fantasy sleepers 2012. He has had plenty of time to get acclimated to his wide receivers in Oakland, and even with the coaching change he will be in a much better place than last year. Remember, he had no training camp last year, came in partway through the season, his WR’s were all banged up and he still threw for over 2700 yards in only 9 games started. That’s an average of over 300 yards per game with no chemistry, his top RB and offensive threat out and his WR’s in and out of action.
Not only do I like Palmer, but I also like his receivers. He has a great bunch of guys in Moore, Heyward-Bey and Ford. These guys are all under rated, but one or more of them is going to put up some big numbers this year. Palmer will finish in the top ten for QB’s this year easily, and if you cannot secure one of the top tier passers like a Rogers or a Brady, Palmer should be able to hold down the QB spot for you quite nicely.
Adrian Peterson Fantasy Value for 2012
Adrian Peterson has been a top selection for a number of years running, and why not? All this guy does is produce at a very high level. Coming into 2012, however, AP is coming off of a major injury. So the question becomes what is Adrian Peterson’s fantasy value for 2012?
To find the fantasy value of Adrian Peterson, we need to look at the injury itself and recovery time. AP says he will be ready to go Week one, but is that really the case? He had his ACL tendon replaced, and has a long and painful rehabilitation ahead of him. Typically you should allow for 10 months to recover from such an injury. Wes Welker came back more quickly.
AP tore his tendon in December of last season, so that puts his timetable at maybe October if you use 10 months as a yardstick. Even then, will he be the same Adrian Peterson? When he comes back, will he be a full time starter, or will he be eased into the games splitting carries.
With AP’s work ethic, it’s not a question of if he will come back and compete at a high level, but rather when. Even if he is ready to go week one, I would not count on him being 100% back to his old self. There will be some drop off, the NFL is an elite game played at an elite level.
For me, the value of Adrian Peterson translates into a mid round pick somewhere. If you can lock up AP and also grab his backfield buddy to corner the market on Viking RB’s, that would not be a bad strategy. I likely will not have him high on my list, I would prefer to have guys like Darren Sproles (ppr leagues), DeMarco Murray, Ahmad Bradshaw or even BenJarvus Green-Ellis.
Running Back Fantasy Sleepers for 2012 – Mikel Leshoure
Last year was a tough year for Lion running backs. Best was hurt, Leshoure never got going and Smith got hurt just when he seemed like a stud option. In our opening edition of running back fantasy sleepers for 2012, we take a look at Mikel Leshoure.
Looking at expert opinions, we take a look at Greg Brosh’s take on Leshoure on fantasyknuckleheads.com:
Leshoure was supposed to be a strong sleeper option last Summer before he was knocked out for the year. A big back at 6’0/227, Leshoure was penciled in as Best’s backup and had a good chance at being the team’s main redzone option. And since Best’s career has been hit-and-miss, many experts, including myself, thought he stood a good chance at claiming the starting job from Best sometime during the season. Of course, that never happened.
Could Leshoure bring that momentum into the 2012 season? That’s a big question mark, but he is someone I would take a flier on at the end of my fantasy draft, especially in larger leagues. It’s yet to be determined if Leshoure will be ready for training camp, but he has made it known that he will be “100 percent to go” in time for the season opener. So while he won’t be someone you will be able to start right out of the gate, he could be a player you could draft and stash, sit on him for a bit and hope he becomes valuable some time during the season.
(read the rest of the article here)
With the high power offense that the Lions have, and with teams expected to have to try and take the pass away from them, the Lions are going to have to be able to run the ball in 2012. Best has not proven that he can be an every down back in the NFL and survive, and if Leshoure can get and stay healthy and have a good camp, he will likely share carries with Best until Best gets hurt again.
Of the running back sleepers for 2012, we agree with Brosh that Leshoure is well worth a later round pick. He may not start the season, but should Best go down again Leshoure may well be a great guy to have around for that late season playoff push.
The Fantasy Value of Brandon Marshall on the Bears
With a number of high profile free agents making moves this off season, it is important to accurately size up how these moves will impact not only the players making the moves, but the players around them. Today we are going to look at the fantasy value of Brandon Marshall on the Bears.
This is an intriguing move. Marshall had his best seasons with Jay Cutler throwing him the ball. They have obvious chemistry, but will that chemistry translate into a great fantasy value for Marshall?
Tom Jaklitsch writes for fftoolbox:
We all know Marshall is a solid wide reciever, but we also know he can be somewhat of a distraction. He has had his fair share of off the field issues (including one that became public right as he was traded to the Bears). Marshall and the Bears are confident this recent incident will not result in any sort of suspension, and I believe he is capable of putting his off the field issues behind him.
As much of a head case or disruption he might have been in years past, his talent is hard to argue with.
He has recorded over 80 receptions and over 1,000 receiving yards in five straight seasons. And the last season that Cutler and Marshall played together (back in 2008 for the Denver Broncos), Marshall put up 104 receptions, over 1,200 yards and six touchdowns in 15 games. Toward the end of Cutler’s stay in Denver, he became unhappy with the coaching and started bumping heads with Marshall, but he still knows how to play with him. It shouldn’t take long before the two of them get back on the same page and realize that they need each other.
(read the rest of the story here)
I tend to agree with what Tom says. If Marshall and Cutler both stay healthy, and Marshall stays out of trouble, he could easily be a top ten wide out at the end of the season. Additionally, with the added offensive fire power, it would not surprise me to see the Bears as one of the top NFC teams this year. Winning games and being in the hunt for the post season should have a trickle down impact on all players.
I like Brandon Marshall coming into the 2012 fantasy season. I believe the fantasy value of Brandon Marshall on the Bears for this upcoming season warrants his selection as a solid number one WR.
What is Peyton Manning’s Fantasy Value in 2012
So with Peyton Manning finally settling down with Denver, the question becomes what is Peyton Manning’s fantasy value in 2012? There are a number of opinions on this, with a lot of moving parts. Considering the wide receivers he has to work with, the cold he will be playing in and the uncertainty of how close to 100% he is, this is a discussion to keep tabs on. We’ve taken a look at a couple expert opinions.
Adam McGill thinks that Manning is poised for a great year with plenty of upside:
Manning is a great second round pick heading into this fantasy season, especially with the current fantasy slide that he is on. Many fantasy owners think that he is coming back just to have another average campaign, but they will be quickly lamenting their decision to pass on him once the season begins. Manning is still a top five option at the position and has moved past Drew Brees as a result of the Saints’ recent coaching staff quandaries. Fantasy owners should make sure Manning does not fall too far because he will easily eclipse the 4,000-yard and 25-touchdown plateau. (read the rest of the article here)
Christopher Harris has a similar outlook, but with a little more downside concern:
We’ll get this out of the way first. Manning is about to turn 36 and has had four surgical procedures on the right side of his neck over the past year and a half. I believe the experts who’ve seen Manning throw, and who say his old ability looks like it’s gradually returning. And I know that when he’s clicking, Manning tends not to take that many direct shots. (He’s routinely averaged less than one sack per game over the past decade.) But he will be hit. And until he is, we simply won’t know. We won’t know whether he’s one harsh blow away from retirement. We won’t know whether his arm will instantly regress again. This risk just has to be figured into any assessment of Manning’s fantasy value, and the values of his potential weapons. For this reason, I don’t think we can instantly return him to his customary top-five QB status. If he plays 16 games, I have confidence that he’ll produce a 4,000-yard season with 25-plus TDs, because that’s what he does. But I don’t know that he’ll play 16 games. Nobody does. (read the rest of the story here)
I’m somewhere in the middle here. He is Peyton Manning, but he is coming into a new offense, with new receivers he has no history with. Even if you take away the injury potential for Peyton Manning, I don’t know that I could pull the trigger on him in the second round. There is a lot of talent at the QB position, and the question marks surrounding Manning make him a risky pick in the early rounds.
At some point he becomes a bargain, and if he plays like the Manning of old with no let down, he could be a great pick, but do you really want to anchor your team around a 36 year old quarterback who didn’t play a down last year and is stepping into a new offense with new receivers? I don’t.
So what is Peyton Manning’s fantasy value for 2012? It’s hard to say. There are a number of quarterbacks with less uncertainty surrounding them that I would rather have. I’d prefer Brady, Rogers, Brees (even with the head coaching issues), Rivers, Stafford, Romo and even Cam Newton. Should Manning slip past these guys, he may be on my radar. Otherwise I will let others gamble while I stock up with sure things in the first few rounds.
Benjarvus Green-Ellis Fantasy Value With The Bengals
Benjarvus Green-Ellis has signed a three year deal with the Bengals. So what does this mean for fantasy owners and what is Benajarvus Green-Ellis’ fantasy value with the Bengals?
Looking at the history of both the Bengals and BGE, the future looks promising. The Bengals love to run. Green-Ellis has fresh legs and doesn’t fumble. Coming from the Patriots where he played in a pass first offense, Green-Ellis still managed to rush for over 1,000 yards only two years ago. This is in addition to being in a major platoon situation!
With the Bengals, expect him to split time with Scott, but to be the number one back. With the improving offense that the Bengals have, along with their commitment to the run, giving Green-Ellis a full workload could turn him into a fantasy beast.
Be sure to keep BGE on your radar. We believe that Benjarvus Green-Ellis’ fantasy value with the Bengals has a large upside. He could wind up a top ten fantasy back if he stays healthy, which would make him a steal after the first few rounds of the draft.
Sean Payton Suspended For 2012 Season
Sean Payton suspended for 2012 season for his knowledge of the bounty system from 2009-2011. In addition, the Saints owner has been suspended for the first eight games of 2012 and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams (who is no longer with the saints) has been banned for good.
This is big news, and the question becomes how will the Saints high flying offense fair with Payton gone for the season? Sure, they still have a great group of talented guys in the locker room, but the loss of Payton is going to have an impact on the numbers this offense puts up.
This may not seem incredibly important, but be sure to factor this in when draft day comes around. The Saints have so many high profile players, with Graham a potential first or second round pick as a TE, a top tier QB and good options at running back and WR in Colston and Sproles, that this is going to have some impact. I don’t know that I would downgrade the whole offense here, but I also don’t know that I would be so quick to spend a second round pick on a TE with the offensive mastermind of this group out for the season.