NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams

September 5, 2023

I’ve posted overrated and underrated NFL teams on my NFL Picks page for a while, but I thought it deserved its own section. I’ll update this page every week during the season as well as periodically during the offseason. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

Updated Sept. 5, 2023

NFL Overrated Teams:

Chicago Bears
Everyone seems to love the Bears, as I’ve seen numerous publications predict a 12-5 record for them this year. While I think they will be improved, Chicago has some glaring flaws that will make a 10-win season unlikely. The Bears have no pass rush to speak of, and they also project to be poor versus the run. Also, with Teven Jenkins sidelined, their blocking is suspect. I like the Bears to win eight or so games this year, but 12-5 is just outrageous.

Minnesota Vikings
We made so much money fading the Vikings late last season, as it was clear that their earlier results were fluky and bogus. I thought they might be underrated this year because of their embarrassing playoff defeat, but they’re still favored by nearly a touchdown in the season opener. The Vikings have a great offense, but it seems likely that they’ll have a bottom-three defense for most of this season.

New Orleans Saints
Someone needs to explain the Saints hype to me. I get that Derek Carr is an upgrade over Andy Dalton, but the Saints had a bottom-10 pressure rate last year, and now, the defense won’t have Marcus Davenport or Kaden Ellis. I have concerns with the Saints’ offensive line as well. Oh, and Alvin Kamara won’t see the field until Week 4, and every New Orleans fans knows that the team is not the same without Kamara.

 

Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are favored by nearly a touchdown over a now-healthy Rams team in Week 1 … why? They barely beat them twice last year when the Rams were missing Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald. The Seahawks are a bottom-eight team in adjusted EPA, thanks mostly to their poor defense, which can’t generate pressure or stop the run. Bobby Wagner will help, but he’s not the same player he once was.

NFL Underrated Teams:

Detroit Lions
Every time I mention the Lions as a viable Super Bowl contender, people snort and say that there’s no chance that’ll happen. The Lions, however, made amazing changes to their front office and scouting approach, and it has paid off. They were 8-2 in their final 10 games last year, with their defense showing major improvement. The Lions made some excellent additions to their secondary this spring, while the offense will welcome Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams at various points during the season.

San Angeles Chargers
I don’t think people realize how good the Chargers are. They were the No. 5 seed last year despite Ra’Shawn Slater and Joey Bosa barely playing, and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missing numerous games. I’m not a big Brandon Staley guy, but the Chargers’ personnel is terrific when everyone is healthy. Granted, there’s a good chance there will be plenty of injuries in the near future, but the Chargers are healthy for now.

Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers without T.J. Watt last year: 1-6, 30th against the pass. The Steelers with T.J. Watt last year: 8-2, sixth against the pass. And the two teams they lost to were the Bengals and Ravens, two playoff squads. Oh, and they beat the Bengals and Ravens in their other matchups against them! Watt is 100 percent heading into 2023, and now the offensive line and secondary have gotten major boosts from moves made in the offseason. Also, Kenny Pickett and George Pickens will have experience now that they’re in their second years. The Steelers are my favorite long shot to win the Super Bowl at 60/1.

 

 

 

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