NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2023

2023 NFL Picks: 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. X, 2:00 p.m. ET.

Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 3 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3 Early Games

New York Giants (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-0)
Line: 49ers by 10. Total: 45.
Thursday, Sept. 21, 8:15 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -9.5.
Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

49ers are 40-29 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.Opening Line: 49ers -10 . Opening Total: 45 . Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick:

Los Angeles Chargers (0-2) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2)
Line: Chargers by 1. Total: 51.5.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -2.5 .
Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Vikings are 41-32 ATS at home since 2014 (10-17 ATS since 2020).Opening Line: Chargers -1. Opening Total: 51.5 . Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick:

Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-0)
Line: Browns by 4.5. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Browns -4.5 .
Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Mike Vrabel is 24-9 ATS as an underdog of 3+ points.Kevin Stefanski is 9-18* ATS as a favorite.Opening Line: Browns -4.5 . Opening Total: 41.5. Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick:

Houston Texans (0-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1)
Line: Jaguars by 9.5. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -7.5 .
Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 20 of the last 25 meetings.Texans are 55-44 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (8-11 ATS as favorites).Jaguars are 9-17 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more since 2003.Jaguars are 12-27 ATS as home favorites since 2008.Jaguars are 5-10 ATS as favorites of -7 or more coming off a loss.Opening Line: Jaguars -9.5 . Opening Total: 45.5. Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick:

New England Patriots (0-2) at New York Jets (1-1)
Line: Patriots by 2. Total: 38.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -2.
Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Patriots have won 35 of the last 41 meetings.Opening Line: Patriots -2 . Opening Total: 38 . Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick:

New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (1-1)
Line: Packers by 2. Total: 43.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -2.5.
Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 12-3 ATS after a loss.Opening Line: Packers -2. Opening Total: 43. Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick:

Denver Broncos (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)
Line: Dolphins by 6.5. Total: 47.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -6 .
Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Russell Wilson is 32-14 ATS after a loss since his second season.Russell Wilson is 31-14 ATS as an underdog.Dolphins are 27-44 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.Opening Line: Dolphins -6.5. Opening Total: 47. Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick:

Buffalo Bills (1-1) at Washington Redskins (2-0)
Line: Bills by 6.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -5.5.
Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Redskins are 11-25 ATS in September home games since 2001.Redskins are 19-31 ATS after a road win since 2000.Opening Line: Bills -6.5. Opening Total: 45.5. Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick:

Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)
Line: Lions by 4.5. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -6 .
Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Lions -4.5. Opening Total: 46.5. Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick:

Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-0)
Line: Ravens by 8. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -8.5.
Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

John Harbaugh is 14-2 SU at home vs. rookie quarterbacks.Lamar Jackson is 7-16 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.Opening Line: Ravens -8. Opening Total: 44.5. Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick:

Week 3 NFL Picks – Late Games
Panthers at Seahawks, Bears at Chiefs, Cowboys at Cardinals, Steelers at Raiders, Eagles at Buccaneers, Rams at Bengals

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 3 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks – Sept. 17

2024 NFL Mock Draft – Sept. 13

Fantasy Football Rankings – Sept. 7

NFL Power Rankings – June 2

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week’s NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)

Last Week’s 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 3-1 (+$380)

Last Week’s 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 3-1 (+$860)

Last Week Over-Under (Week 1, 2023): 11-5 ($0)

Last Week’s Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 1, 2023): -$210

2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-1, 0% (-$440)

2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 14-13, 51.9% (-$145)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 3-1, 75.0% (+$380)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 3-1, 75.0% (+$860)
2023 Season Over-Under: 11-5, 68.8% ($0)

2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$210

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)

2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)

2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)

2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)

2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)

2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)

2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)

2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)

2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)

2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)

2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)

2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,310-3,044-188, 52.1% (+$29,285)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,068-951-51 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 528-459-24 (53.5%)
Career Over-Under: 2,738-2,721-71 (50.1%)

Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-32-1 (59.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 0-1

Bears: 1-0

Bucs: 1-0

49ers: 0-1

Eagles: 0-1

Lions: 1-0

Falcons: 1-0

Cardinals: 0-1

Giants: 0-1

Packers: 1-0

Panthers: 1-0

Rams: 1-0