NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2023

NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)

2023 NFL Picks: 34-24-1 (-$1,575)

2022 NFL Picks: 154-134-8 (+$9,860)

2021 NFL Picks: 153-141-2 (+$210)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my
Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. X, 2:00 p.m. ET.
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4 Early Games

Detroit Lions (2-1) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Line: Lions by 1. Total: 44.5.

Thursday, Sept. 28, 8:15 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -1.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 58% (7,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Lions have won the last 3 meetings.
Lions are 18-23 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning records since 2011.
Packers are 62-37 ATS in divisional games since 2006.
Opening Line: Lions -2.
Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick:

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 43.5.

Sunday, Oct. 1, 9:30 AM

at London

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -3.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 51% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Falcons are 35-26 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 61 instances.
Jaguars are 56-101 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
Jaguars are 16-50 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.
Doug Pederson is 3-7 ATS after losing as a favorite.
Opening Line: Jaguars -3.
Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick:

Miami Dolphins (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (2-1)
Line: Bills by 2.5. Total: 53.5.

Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -3.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 54% (7,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

History: Bills have won 16 of the last 21 meetings.
Dolphins are 28-15 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.
Bills are 27-43 ATS in their last 70 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Opening Line: Bills -2.5.
Opening Total: 53.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick:

Minnesota Vikings (0-3) at Carolina Panthers (0-3)
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 45.

Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -3.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Easy money, apparently.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 86% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: Vikings -3.
Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick:

Denver Broncos (0-3) at Chicago Bears (0-3)
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 46.

Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -1.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Everyone is lining up to bet the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 93% (6,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Russell Wilson is 32-15 ATS after a loss since his second season.
Opening Line: Broncos -3.5.
Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick:

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-1)
Line: Browns by 2.5. Total: 42.

Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -1.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 51% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Ravens have won 24 of the last 30 meetings (Road Team has covered 16 of the last 25 non-pushes).
Kevin Stefanski is 10-19 ATS as a favorite.
Opening Line: Browns -2.
Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick:

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Houston Texans (1-2)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 40.5.

Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: Texans.

After two wins, the Steelers have this easy game before battling the Ravens.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -4.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

Sharp action on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 68% (3,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Steelers are 14-29 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin.
Opening Line: Steelers -3.
Opening Total: 40.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick:

Los Angeles Rams (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (2-1)
Line: Colts by 1. Total: 45.

Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -1.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

No believers in the Colts yet.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 79% (3,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: Colts -1.
Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 41.

Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -3.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Plenty of action against Jameis Winston.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 68% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

History: Saints have won 17 of the last 24 meetings.
Road Team is 124-87 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.
Derek Carr is 6-17 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+. ???
Opening Line: Saints -3.
Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick:

Washington Redskins (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)
Line: Eagles by 7. Total: 44.5.

Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -7.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 54% (3,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

History: Eagles have won 9 of the last 12 meetings.
Ron Rivera is 7-3 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.
Opening Line: Eagles -7.
Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick:

Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-2)
Line: Titans by 1.5. Total: 42.

Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Titans -1.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Everyone wants to fade the Titans.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 86% (2,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 32-15 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-5 ATS otherwise).
Opening Line: Titans -1.5.
Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick:

Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games
Raiders at Chargers, Patriots at Cowboys, Cardinals at 49ers, Chiefs at Jets, Seahawks at Giants

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks – Sept. 26

2024 NFL Mock Draft – Sept. 13

Fantasy Football Rankings – Sept. 7

NFL Power Rankings – June 2

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week’s NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)

Last Week’s 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 3-1 (+$580)

Last Week’s 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 1-2 (-$750)

Last Week Over-Under (Week 3, 2023): 8-8 ($0)

Last Week’s Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 3, 2023): -$25

2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-2, 0% (-$1,440)

2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 34-24-1, 58.6% (-$1,575)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 7-5, 58.3% (+$515)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 7-5, 58.3% (+$410)
2023 Season Over-Under: 22-26, 45.8% ($0)

2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$520

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)

2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)

2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)

2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)

2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)

2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)

2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)

2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)

2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)

2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)

2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)

2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,330-3,055-189, 52.2% (+$27,855)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,072-955-51 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 532-463-24 (53.5%)
Career Over-Under: 2,749-2,742-71 (50.1%)

Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-32-1 (59.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 1-2

Bears: 2-1

Bucs: 2-1

49ers: 2-1

Eagles: 1-1

Lions: 1-2

Falcons: 2-1

Cardinals: 2-1

Giants: 2-1

Packers: 3-0

Panthers: 2-1

Rams: 3-0