About Fantasy Football

Arizona Cardinals (1-5) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2)
Line: Seahawks by 8. Total: 44.5.

Sunday, Oct. 22, 4:05 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

SEATTLE OFFENSE: If the Seahawks watched the Rams-Cardinals game at all, they’ll know to run the ball heavily. If there’s one thing the Cardinals do well, it’s rush the passer. They were able to get heavy heat on Matthew Stafford last week. Stafford was hit often in the first half, as the Rams scored only six points.

The second half of that affair was completely different. The Rams ran on almost every play following intermission, and Arizona could do nothing to stop it. Kenneth Walker figures to have a monster output for that reason. He would be a good bet to have the most rushing yards among all running backs this Sunday.

Walker’s great running will undoubtedly open up favorable opportunities for Geno Smith. The Seattle passing game figures to be effective here if Smith isn’t constantly under siege, given the issues the Cardinals have in their secondary. There’s a chance Budda Baker will return from injury, however, so he’ll definitely provide a boost.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Unlike the Seahawks, the Cardinals won’t be able to get anything on the ground. Not only is James Conner out; the Seahawks also boast the No. 1 ground defense in the NFL.

Joshua Dobbs will need to throw on the Seattle secondary to have a chance in this game. We’re not too far removed from seeing Andy Dalton torch the Seahawks, so don’t count out Dobbs having a good game.

It helps that Dobbs is protected well. I also don’t trust the Seahawks’ pass rush despite what we saw in a Monday night affair versus the Giants, so Dobbs will have his opportunities.
,br>

RECAP: If you like Seattle, know that you lost value from the advance spread (Seattle -7), and now you don’t win with a single major key number. That’s a big deal, given that favorites of eight see the margin of seven hit 8.79 percent of the time. It’s no three when the spread is 2.5 or 3.5, but it’s still significant, so you still need somewhat of a good reason to bet the -8. Also, consider that Geno Smith is 2-6 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5-plus. These are things going against you if you bet the Seahawks.

Also, weird things tend to happen in this rivalry as well, with Arizona posting six upset victories in Seattle dating back to 2013. These are not just outright wins where the Cardinals have been favored; they are all upsets, as in the Cardinals were underdogs in every single victory in Seattle.

It’s interesting to note that two of these upset victories occurred when the Seahawks were traveling back from playing on the East Coast. There’s a ton of travel involved for the Seahawks in these games, so we might see the Seattle players be lethargic in this contest, especially after seeing this Arizona team get crushed by the Rams in a game that was really 9-6 entering the third quarter.

I like the Cardinals to cover this spread, and I was happy to see the sharps were on them as well. This will be a three- or four-unit bet.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-3)
Line: Rams by 3. Total: 44.

Sunday, Oct. 22, 4:05 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: Israel or Palestine? Perhaps the biggest losers in this conflict are actors who don’t know which side to support:

My heart goes out to all the poor celebrities who don’t know to which side to pander. Life must be very difficult for them right now!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers have a dreadful offense, but Mike Tomlin specifically said that major changes were coming following the Houston loss. There wasn’t enough time for him to implement those changes the following week, but perhaps they’ll be done during the bye week. At the very least, Pittsburgh will have a boost in the passing game with Diontae Johnson expected to return soon.

I would also like to see the Steelers re-shuffle their offensive line, as left tackle Dan Moore has been the worst starting blocker in the NFL. Luckily for Moore, or perhaps his replacement, the Rams have a bottom-10 pressure rate. Aaron Donald is obviously still a beast, but the Rams have no edge rush.

With Kenny Pickett possessing time in the pocket, he should be able to connect with Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth. He’ll also have Jaylen Warren as a receiving threat out of the backfield. It was nice to see Warren be more involved than Najee Harris toward the end of the Week 5 game.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford took a beating last game. The Cardinals hounded him behind his pedestrian offensive line, forcing Sean McVay to make some major adjustments at halftime. The Rams came out of the locker room with a new, run-heavy approach.

The Rams won’t have as much success on the ground in this matchup. The Steelers are much better versus the run than the Cardinals are. Plus, Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers are both sidelined. With Cam Akers gone, the Rams are down their top three running backs from Week 1. It’ll be up to Zach Evans to carry the load, which shouldn’t threaten Pittsburgh’s defense.

Stafford will have to pass more, which could be treacherous against Pittsburgh’s defense. The Steelers are terrific at generating pressure, so if Stafford thought last week was bad, he’ll be in for a tough time against the Steelers’ stop unit.

RECAP: As someone who has bet the Steelers to go over their win total and to prevail in the Super Bowl as a long shot, I’m hoping they are as good as their record says they are. Their defense certainly is, ranking ninth in adjusted EPA. Their offense, however, is dreadful, though Diontae Johnson’s possible return will help.

The Steelers should be able to move the ball somewhat well in this game, given that they’re not battling a top-10 defense like the 49ers, Browns, or Ravens. The Rams are in the middle of the pack in that regard, so with a week off, perhaps Pittsburgh will have something new up its sleeve. Tomlin, after all, promised changes.

Speaking of Tomlin, he has a great track record of covering as an underdog (55-30 ATS), so I like the Steelers with the four key numbers. The sharps appear to be going the other way, but I think Pittsburgh is the right side.

Los Angeles Chargers (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-1)
Line: Chiefs by 5.5. Total: 48.5.

Sunday, Oct. 22, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I’ve heard this opinion so often that I’m beginning to go insane. The prevailing thought among most NFL media people and podcasts is that the Chiefs’ offense isn’t as good as usual this year. Yet, I’m looking at the EPA rankings, and Kansas City ranks fourth in offense, trailing only Miami, Buffalo, and San Francisco. What gives?

It feels like the Chiefs goofed off last week against the Broncos, trying nonsensical plays at times because they knew they’d prevail. They’ll have to be more focused in this game, which is not a sentiment I thought I’d have a few weeks ago when the Chargers were ranked in the high 20s of defensive EPA. They have since “improved” to 23rd, which isn’t great by any means, but at least they can no longer be called one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

The key in this matchup is that the Chargers can generate pressure on the quarterback. Khalil Mack has been a monster, while Joey Bosa should be healthier in this game. This will make life difficult for Patrick Mahomes, but the Chargers have enough holes in their linebacking corps and secondary for Mahomes to exploit, so I expect the Chiefs to score a healthy sum in this game.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Justin Herbert has thrived in matchups against the Chiefs throughout his young career. He nearly knocked off Kansas City on the road last year in Week 2, but got hurt at the end. Herbert then didn’t have a full supporting cast in the rematch, but that was a close game as well.

Things might be different this time, however, as Herbert has never faced a terrific Kansas City defense. The Chiefs’ stop unit has improved by leaps and bounds since that Week 2 affair last year. Believe it or not, the Chiefs are second in defensive EPA. They rank third in pressure rate, so they’ll be able to harass Herbert frequently, which could force the Chargers into making more mistakes.

The one negative area for the Chiefs is their run defense, which ranks 25th. However, this is a bit misleading because they’ve missed some linebackers, who are now back in action. Thus, I don’t expect Austin Ekeler to have a dominant game on the ground, or anything.

RECAP: This is a tough one to call. On one hand, the Chargers tend to keep many of their games close. Since Justin Herbert’s second season, here are the margin of defeats the Chargers have had: 3, 3, 2, 1, 3, 7, 3, 6, 14, 28, 3, 3, 12, 6, 15, 7, 3, 28, 3. Of the 19 losses, 12 have been by six points or fewer. Fourteen have been by 17 points or fewer. The Chargers are seldom blown out because Herbert has the ability to keep games close. And if you’re wondering, three of those close margins have come against Kansas City.

On the other hand, this might be the best Chiefs team we’ve seen. The Kansas City teams of the past have been explosive offensively, but lackluster on the defensive side of the ball. These current Chiefs are second in offense and fourth in defense. Their inability to win by large margins used to be a thing, but it’s not anymore because Kansas City’s defense is elite.

I want to be on the Chiefs because of this knowledge, but I have a voice inside my head telling me that Herbert will somehow keep this game close, even if it’s via a back-door cover in garbage time. Thus, I’m going to side with Kansas City, but I won’t bet this game.

Green Bay Packers (2-3) at Denver Broncos (1-5)
Line: Packers by 1. Total: 44.5.

Sunday, Oct. 22, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Emmitt on the Brink was posted here. Now, Emmitt makes an appearance in my new book, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen!

You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I’d like to say that “No Cookie” Jordan Love will perform on a high level against Denver’s miserable defense, but I can’t declare such a thing after what transpired a couple of Monday nights ago. Love had a great matchup against the Raiders in that game, but self-destructed with three interceptions and poor red zone offense.

One thing that was shocking about the matchup was how much pressure Love saw in the pocket. The Raiders had a bottom-five pressure rate entering the game, yet Maxx Crosby destroyed Love with relentless pressure. The Broncos are slightly worse than the Raiders at getting after the quarterback, ranking 31st instead of 30th, but Green Bay’s offensive line should theoretically be able to keep Love protected. Then again, that was also the case in the matchup versus Las Vegas.

Meanwhile, there’s more hope for the Packers with their running game. While the Raiders aren’t very good versus the rush, ranking 24th against it, Denver is much worse (31st). With Aaron Jones due back after a week off, Green Bay should have more success on the ground than it had versus the Raiders.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Packers should be healthier on this side of the ball as well. Jaire Alexander was playing in his first game back from injury versus the Raiders, so he figures to be even better after the bye. De’Vondre Campbell, who has been sidelined since Week 3, should also be able to return. Green Bay’s defense has not looked the same without him.

The Packers will create some problems for Russell Wilson in the pocket. Denver’s pass protection has mostly been poor this season, and Green Bay thrives at generating heat on opposing quarterbacks. Wilson, as a result, will struggle until he falls behind. There’s a prevailing opinion that Wilson has been better in 2023 than he was with Nathaniel Hackett, and while this is true because he must be by default, it also must be pointed out that Wilson has posted most of his positive stats in garbage time of many games.

Denver will at least be able to run the ball, at least while they’re not behind multiple scores. The Packers have historically been brutal versus the rush, and Javonte Williams looked like his former self on Thursday night against the Chiefs. Williams can’t handle a full workload yet, but Jaleel McLaughlin has looked good in relief.

RECAP: Here we go again. There’s a ton of sharp money coming in on the Broncos. This is the fourth time Denver is heavily backed by the pros this year. The Broncos are 0-3 against the spread in those games.

I won’t be siding with the sharps. I have interest in the Packers, assuming they get some injured players back like Jones and Campbell. Green Bay missed those players in their loss to the Raiders prior to the bye. Having them on the field against a similarly ranked team like the Broncos would perhaps put them over the top, assuming that Love doesn’t sabotage another potential victory.

Miami Dolphins (5-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-1)
Line: Eagles by 2. Total: 52.5.

Sunday, Oct. 22, 8:20 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

San Francisco 49ers (5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (2-4)
Line: 49ers by 7. Total: 45.

Monday, Oct. 23, 8:15 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .