NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2023

Published by
November 5, 2023

NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)

NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)

NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)

NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)

NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)

2023 NFL Picks: 45-41-3 (-$3,245)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)

NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)

NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)

NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)

NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)

NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)

NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)

NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)

NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)

NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)

NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)

NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)

NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)

NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)

NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)

If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my
Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. X, 2:00 p.m. ET.
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10 Early Games

Carolina Panthers (1-7) at Chicago Bears (2-7)
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 40.5.

Thursday, Nov. 9, 8:15 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -1.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: Bears -3.
Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick:

Indianapolis Colts (4-5) vs. New England Patriots (2-7)
Line: Colts by 1.5. Total: 43.5.

Sunday, Nov. 12, 9:30 AM

at Germany

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -1.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: Patriots -1.5.
Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick:

Cleveland Browns (5-3) at Baltimore Ravens (7-2)
Line: Ravens by 6. Total: 39.

Sunday, Nov. 12, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -4.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Ravens have won 25 of the last 31 meetings (Road Team has covered 17 of the last 26 non-pushes).
Lamar Jackson is 8-17 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.
Opening Line: Ravens -4.5.
Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick:

Houston Texans (4-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)
Line: Bengals by 7. Total: 46.

Sunday, Nov. 12, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -7.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 36-16 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-5 ATS otherwise).
Opening Line: Bengals -8.5.
Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick:

San Francisco 49ers (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2)
Line: 49ers by 2.5. Total: 44.5.

Sunday, Nov. 12, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -2.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Brock Purdy is 12-3 SU, 10-5 ATS.
Jaguars are 60-101 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
Jaguars are 18-50 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.
Opening Line: 49ers -2.5.
Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick:

New Orleans Saints (5-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4)
Line: Saints by 2.5. Total: 41.

Sunday, Nov. 12, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -2.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Derek Carr is 6-19 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+. ???
Derek Carr is 7-13 ATS as a road favorite. ???
Vikings are 42-33 ATS at home since 2014 (11-18 ATS since 2020).
Opening Line: Saints -2.5.
Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick:

Green Bay Packers (3-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 37.

Sunday, Nov. 12, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -3.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.
Opening Total: 37.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick:

Tennessee Titans (3-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
Line: Buccaneers by 1. Total: 39.

Sunday, Nov. 12, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -1.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Mike Vrabel is 24-12 ATS as an underdog of 3+ points. ???
Road Team is 128-88 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.
Buccaneers are 38-69 ATS at home in the previous 107 instances.
Opening Line: Buccaneers -1.
Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick:

Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games

Falcons at Cardinals, Lions at Chargers, Giants at Cowboys, Redskins at Seahawks, Jets at Raiders, Broncos at Bills

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks

A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks – Sept. 11

Fantasy Football Rankings – Sept. 7

2024 NFL Mock Draft – July 25

NFL Power Rankings – June 2

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is
solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week’s NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)

Last Week’s 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 5-2 (+$865)

Last Week’s 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 0-1 (-$440)

Last Week Over-Under (Week 7, 2023): 5-8 ($0)

Last Week’s Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 7, 2023): -$495

2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-3, 0% (-$2,360)

2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 58-55-3, 51.3% (-$5,445)

2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-14-1, 57.8% (+$860)

2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 10-13, 43.5% (-$2,235)

2023 Season Over-Under: 52-54, 49.1% (+$100)

2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,435

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)

2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)

2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)

2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)

2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)

2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)

2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)

2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)

2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)

2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)

2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)

2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)

2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)

2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)

2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)

2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)

2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)

2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)

2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)

2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)

2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)

2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)

2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)

2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)

2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)

2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)

2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)

2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)

2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)

2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)

2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)

2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)

2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)

2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)

2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)

2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)

2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)

2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)

2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)

2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)

2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)

2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)

2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)

2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)

2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)

2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)

2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)

2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)

2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)

2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)

2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)

2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)

2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)

2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)

2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)

2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)

2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)

2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)

2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)

2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)

2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)

2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)

2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)

2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)

2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)

2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)

2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)

2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)

2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)

2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)

2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)

2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)

2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)

2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)

2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035

2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775

2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865

2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200

2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590

2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855

2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275

2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510

2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495

2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715

2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975

2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455

2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)

2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)

2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)

2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)

2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)

2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)

2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)

2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)

2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)

2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)

2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)

2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)

2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)

2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,347-3,080-191, 52.1% (+$23,955)

Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,079-962-53 (52.9%)

Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 535-470-24 (53.2%)

Career Over-Under: 2,774-2,763-71 (50.1%)

Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)

Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-33-1 (58.2%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record

This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read
each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 3-3
Bears: 4-2
Bucs: 3-3
49ers: 5-2
Eagles: 3-2
Lions: 4-3
Falcons: 5-2
Cardinals: 3-4
Giants: 3-4
Packers: 4-2
Panthers: 3-3
Rams: 4-3
Redskins: 6-1
Vikings: 2-4
Saints: 4-3
Seahawks: 2-4
Bills: 4-3
Bengals: 4-2
Colts: 3-4
Broncos: 2-3
Dolphins: 2-5
Browns: 3-3
Jaguars: 4-3
Chargers: 3-2
Jets: 3-3
Ravens: 5-2
Texans: 1-5
Chiefs: 3-3
Patriots: 2-5
Steelers: 4-2
Titans: 4-2
Raiders: 4-2
Divisional: 22-10 (2011-22: 558-526)
2x Game Edge: 13-12 (2011-22: 363-361)
2x Motivation Edge: 11-15 (2011-22: 478-405)
2x Spread Edge: 14-13 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 17-16 (2011-22: 407-406)
2x Trend Edge: 9-7 (2011-22: 306-279)
Double Edge: 10-6 (2011-22: 190-172)
Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-22: 32-36)


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XXXVIII

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2005 Preseason:
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2006 Preseason:
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2007 Preseason:
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XLIII |

2009 Season:
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XLIV |

2010 Preseason:
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XLV |

2011 Preseason:
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XLVI |

2012 Preseason:
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2012 Season:

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Super Bowl XLVII NFL Pick

2013 Preseason:
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2013 Season:

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Super Bowl XLVIII NFL Pick

2014 Preseason:
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2014 Season:

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Super Bowl XLIX Pick

2015 Preseason:
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2015 Season:

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Super Bowl 50 NFL Pick

2016 Preseason:
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2016 Season:

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Super Bowl LI NFL Pick

2017 Preseason:
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