NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2023): 5-10-1 (-$1,295)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2023): 5-9 (-$935)
2023 NFL Picks: 68-74-5 (-$7,675)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my
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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 13, 1:30 p.m. ET.
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games
NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11 Early Games
Cincinnati Bengals (5-3) at Baltimore Ravens (7-2)
Line: Ravens by 3.5. Total: 44.
Thursday, Nov. 16, 8:15 PM
The Matchup. Edge: .
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: .
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.
Computer Model: .
The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
The Bengals are a public dog.
Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 83% (8,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
History: Bengals have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Joe Burrow is 36-17 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-5 ATS otherwise).
Joe Burrow is 14-5 ATS after a loss.
Lamar Jackson is 8-18 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.
Opening Line: Ravens -2.5.
Opening Total: 44.
Weather: .
Week 11 NFL Pick:
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at Cleveland Browns (6-3)
Line: Browns by 4. Total: 38.5.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: .
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: .
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Browns -4.5.
Computer Model: .
The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
Slight lean on the Steelers.
Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 63% (13,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
History: Steelers have won 39 of the last 47 meetings excluding a 2018 tie.
Mike Tomlin is 56-31 ATS as an underdog.
Kevin Stefanski is 11-20 ATS as a favorite.
Opening Line: Browns -4.
Opening Total: 38.5.
Weather: .
Week 11 NFL Pick:
Arizona Cardinals (2-8) at Houston Texans (5-4)
Line: Texans by 4. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: .
The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.
The Texans are coming off an emotional win and have to battle the rival Jaguars next week.
The Spread. Edge: .
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -4.
Computer Model: .
The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
The Cardinals are a public dog.
Percentage of money on Arizona: 69% (4,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Opening Line: Texans -5.5.
Opening Total: 48.5.
Weather: .
Week 11 NFL Pick:
Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (3-6)
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 44.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: .
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: .
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.
Computer Model: .
The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
Tons of action on the Chargers.
Percentage of money on San Angeles: 90% (2,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Justin Herbert is 10-15 ATS as a favorite of -3 or more.
Packers are 7-5 ATS as home underdogs since 2007.
Matt LaFleur is 14-7 ATS after a loss.
Opening Line: Chargers -2.5.
Opening Total: 42.
Weather: .
Week 11 NFL Pick:
New York Giants (2-8) at Washington Redskins (4-6)
Line: Redskins by 10. Total: 37.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: .
The Motivation. Edge: Giants.
The Redskins have to battle the Cowboys in four days.
The Spread. Edge: .
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -8.
Computer Model: .
The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
No one wants to lay 10 with the Redskins?
Percentage of money on New York: 90% (7,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Giants.
History: Giants have won 24 of the last 34 meetings (except the 2022 tie).
Opening Line: Redskins -10.
Opening Total: 37.
Weather: .
Week 11 NFL Pick:
Tennessee Titans (3-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)
Line: Jaguars by 6.5. Total: 40.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: .
The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.
The Jaguars are coming off a humiliating loss.
The Spread. Edge: .
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -6.
Computer Model: .
The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
Slight lean on the Jaguars.
Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 64% (3,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Titans.
History: Titans have won 11 of the past 15 meetings.
Mike Vrabel is 24-12 ATS as an underdog of 3+ points.
Jaguars are 13-28 ATS as home favorites since 2008.
Jaguars are 9-18 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more since 2003.
Jaguars are 5-11 ATS as favorites of -7 or more coming off a loss. ???
Opening Line: Jaguars -6.5.
Opening Total: 40.
Weather: .
Week 11 NFL Pick:
Chicago Bears (3-7) at Detroit Lions (7-2)
Line: Lions by 10. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: .
The Motivation. Edge: Bears.
The Lions host a Thanksgiving game in four days, but it’s against the Packers.
The Spread. Edge: .
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -8.
Computer Model: .
The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
Easy money.
Percentage of money on Detroit: 96% (5,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Bears.
History: Bears have won 7 of the last 10 meetings (Lions won last 2.)
Lions are 7-11 ATS before their Thanksgiving game since 2005.
Opening Line: Lions -8.
Opening Total: 45.
Weather: .
Week 11 NFL Pick:
Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) at Miami Dolphins (6-3)
Line: Dolphins by 11. Total: 48.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: .
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: .
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -10.
Computer Model: .
The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
No one believes in the Raiders yet.
Percentage of money on Miami: 92% (3,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Raiders are 18-13 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008. ???
Raiders are 34-54 ATS after a win since 2009.
Opening Line: Dolphins -10.
Opening Total: 48.
Weather: .
Week 11 NFL Pick:
Dallas Cowboys (6-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-8)
Line: Cowboys by 11. Total: 42.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: .
The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.
The Cowboys host a Thanksgiving game in four days, but it’s against the Redskins.
The Spread. Edge: .
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -9.
Computer Model: .
The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
All the money on the Cowboys.
Percentage of money on Dallas: 90% (5,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
The underdog is 117-96 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
Opening Line: Cowboys -9.
Opening Total: 41.
Weather: .
Week 11 NFL Pick:
Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games
Buccaneers at 49ers, Jets at Bills, Seahawks at Rams, Vikings at Broncos, Eagles at Chiefs
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games
NFL Picks – Sept. 11
Fantasy Football Rankings – Sept. 7
2024 NFL Mock Draft – July 25
NFL Power Rankings – June 2
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read
each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
2003 Preseason:
3 |
4 |
5
2003 Season:
1
|
2 |
3 |
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10 |
11 |
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
20
|
XXXVIII
2004 Preseason:
1
|
2 |
3 |
4
2004 Season:
1
|
2 |
3 |
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10 |
11 |
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
19
|
20
|
XXXIX
2005 Preseason:
1
|
2 |
3 |
4
2005 Season:
1
|
2 |
3 |
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10 |
11 |
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
19
|
20
|
XL
2006 Preseason:
1
|
2 |
3 |
4
2006 Season:
1
|
2 |
3 |
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10 |
11 |
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
19
|
20
|
XLI
2007 Preseason:
1
|
2 |
3 |
4
2007 Season:
1
|
2 |
3 |
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10 |
11 |
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
19
|
20
|
XLII
|
2008 Preseason:
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
2008 Season:
1
|
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
XLIII |
2009 Season:
1
|
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
XLIV |
2010 Preseason:
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
2010 Season:
1
|
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
XLV |
2011 Preseason:
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
2011 Season:
1
|
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
XLVI |
2012 Preseason:
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
2012 Season:
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Super Bowl XLVII NFL Pick
2013 Preseason:
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
2013 Season:
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2014 Preseason:
1
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2
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3
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4
|
2014 Season:
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Super Bowl XLIX Pick
2015 Preseason:
1
|
2
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3
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4
|
2015 Season:
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Super Bowl 50 NFL Pick
2016 Preseason:
1
|
2
|
3
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4
|
2016 Season:
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Super Bowl LI NFL Pick
2017 Preseason:
1
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2
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3
|
4
2017 Season:
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Super Bowl LII NFL Pick
2018 Preseason:
1
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2
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3
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4
2018 Season:
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Super Bowl LIII NFL Pick
2019 Preseason:
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
2019 Season:
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2020 Season:
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Super Bowl LV Pick
2021 Season:
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2022 Season:
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2023 Season:
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