With Week 1 in the books, everyone has already decided who’s broken out and who’s a bust. Before acting, it’s worth asking what the projections actually got right. We start with the three standalone windows, then grade FFA’s weighted projections by position and hand out the week’s biggest smashes, closest hits and worst misses.
Methodology: Each game includes the fantasy relevant starters at QB, RB, WR and TE. Players who were inactive or left with an in game injury and didn’t return are excluded. Players outside our top projected group at each position are also excluded. That leaves 191 graded players. Accuracy is measured by mean absolute error (MAE), the average distance between projected and actual points, and bias (actual minus projected), which shows whether projections ran high or low. A list of excluded players can be found at the bottom of this page.
Standalone Windows
Patriots vs Seahawks:
The Super Bowl LX rematch was a defensive battle. Sam Darnold exited after suffering a hip strain on the first drive, with Drew Lock stepping in to secure the 13-10 come from behind win. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the only player to clear 15 FPTS (26.2 vs 19.1 proj, 7.1), with a game tying 45 yard TD.
Maye’s night started hot with a TD to third round rookie TE Eli Raridon, his only catch. It unraveled in the fourth quarter, when Maye threw 3 INTs and finished at 11.82 FPTS (19 proj, -7.18). A.J. Brown left in the third quarter with a high ankle sprain and has been placed on IR. Romeo Doubs was the biggest miss (0 vs 8.7 proj), going catchless on three targets with a crucial drop.
49ers vs Rams:
Myles Garrett’s Rams debut in Melbourne, Australia, was a quiet one: zero tackles as the 49ers scored the final 24 points. Kyren Williams scored the Rams’ only TD in the second quarter (15.5 vs. 12.7 proj). The 2025 MVP Matthew Stafford was held to just 155 yards and 4.1 FPTS (18.2 proj, -14.1), the largest miss of the weekday games.
Uber hyped rookie De’Zhaun Stribling left in the second quarter with a non-contact injury. Deebo Samuel caught a TD in his 49ers return (18.0 vs. 7.7 proj, +10.3), with Mike Evans and Demarcus Robinson each adding a score. George Kittle was limited in his first game back from January’s Achilles tear, posting 3.2 FPTS on 46% of the snaps. Purdy posted 27.1 FPTS (vs. 18.3 proj, +8.8), going 25/34 for 205 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT.
Broncos vs Chiefs:
Kansas City ran away with it 31-10, out gaining Denver 392 to 176. Kenneth Walker was the story and the week’s third biggest beat, carrying 23 times for 173 yards and 2 TDs. He finished at 34.1 FPTS (13.40 proj, +20.70). The Chiefs ran the ball 38 times for 220 yards, Walker accounting for nearly 80% of that. Patrick Mahomes posted 25.66 FPTS (18.40 proj, +7.26) on 15/27 for 184 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT, with a rushing score of his own. Travis Kelce quietly turned in the most accurate projection of the entire week, 3 catches on 5 targets for 71 yards (10.1 FPTS vs 9.96 projected, +.14).
Denver never got going. Bo Nix went 17/28 for 131 yards with a TD and an INT, taking 4 sacks and finishing at 7.44 FPTS (17.70 proj, −10.26). Jaylen Waddle’s Broncos debut was worse, catching 1/3 targets for 2 yards and 1.2 FPTS against an 11.60 projection. Courtland Sutton wasn’t far behind at 3.1 FPTS (9.99 proj, −6.89), and Pat Bryant (outside top 72 projected WRs) led all Denver WRs with 4 catches for 42. Evan Engram was the only bright spot, catching 4/5 targets for 43 yards and a TD to post 14.3 FPTS (5.51 proj, +8.79). Broncos-Chiefs came in at 7.20 MAE.
Week 1 By The Numbers:
Across 191 graded players, the FFA weighted projections missed by an average of 5.97 fantasy points, with 34% landing within 3 points of the mark. The bias ran slightly positive at +0.92, meaning players outscored their projections on average, which is what you’d expect from a week that produced 93 TDs. QB carried the highest raw error at 7.62 MAE, with just 17% of projections within 3 points against an average projection of 19.41, nearly double any other position. TE was the most accurate in raw terms at 5.10, leading the field with 42% landing within 3 points. RB and WR landed in between at 5.65 and 6.03 MAE, but they got there differently. RB ran the most optimistic of any position at +1.62 bias, while WR was the only group that didn’t undershoot, finishing essentially neutral at −0.11.
3 Projection Smashes
Caleb Williams and Bryce Young:
In the 1:00 PM slate, Williams 41.26 FPTS (21.3 proj, +19.96) and Young 37.44 FPTS (18.4 proj, +19.04) nearly doubled their projections. D’Andre Swift scored 3 times, with Caleb adding 2 of his own on the ground. Jalen Coker caught 2 from Young, a 51 yard deep shot and an 8 yarder in the fourth, finishing at 33.8 FPTS (9.07 proj, +24.73) for the single biggest beat of Week 1. Kyle Monangai chipped in a 61 yard house call. 13 TDs were scored in the 59-37 final, making this the worst projected game of the week at 10.46 MAE.
Christian Watson, 32.70 (10.70 proj, +22.00):
The biggest beat outside Charlotte was Watson’s 147 yards and 2 TDs on 6/8 targets. Minnesota rallied from 12 down to win 39-22 behind Carson Wentz, who took over after Kyler Murray’s first quarter concussion and threw 3 TDs. Justin Jefferson answered the call with 8 catches for 92 yards and 2 TDs (31.2 FPTS vs. 15.3 proj, +15.90), giving the game two of the week’s biggest WR performances.
Derrick Henry, 35.30 (16.70 proj, +18.60):
Nobody can tell Henry to slow down. He gashed Indianapolis on 24 carries for 144 yards and 3 TDs in a 41-23 Ravens win. It was the highest total by any non-quarterback in Week 1 and more than double his RB6 projection. Zay Flowers was on his way to a monster line before a hamstring ruled him out at halftime, finishing with 5 catches for 150 yards and a TD. He’s excluded from the accuracy numbers under the injury rule.
3 Projection Hits
Cam Skattebo, 14.10 vs. 13.80 (+0.30):
18 carries for 81 yards and a goal line first quarter TD in the Giants’ 28-20 Sunday night win over Dallas. Skattebo got the early downs with Najee Harris inactive and Tyrone Tracy lost a fumble around the first two minute warning, finishing at −0.6 FPTS. Devin Singletary quietly matched Skattebo’s fantasy day at 13.8 FPTS (4.06 proj, +9.74) on 6 carries and 4 catches with a receiving TD.
Garrett Wilson, 13.90 vs. 14.30 (−0.40):
6 catches on 7 targets for 79 yards in the Jets’ 23-10 win, leading the team in both targets and receiving yards. Volume driven, TD neutral, and right where our weighted projections had him. Geno Smith went 19/24 for 215 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs, posting 9.3 FPTS against a 15.30 projection (-6). Breece Hall had 22 carries for 102 yards and a TD (19.8 FPTS vs. 12.40 proj, +7.4). Jets-Titans was the most accurate game of the week at 3.64 MAE, with 6/13 players landing within 3 points of projection.
Malik Willis, 16.70 vs. 17.60 (−0.90):
Willis lost his Dolphins debut 27-13 in Las Vegas. He went 15/27 for 220 yards with an INT and added 6 carries for 39 yards and a rushing TD. QB was the least accurate position of the week at 7.34 MAE, so a QB landing within a point is the most interesting part of this stat. Everything around him missed. De’Von Achane was projected as the week’s RB5 at 17.40 FPTS, managing just 36 yards on 11 carries with 4 catches for 30, finishing at 10.6 FPTS (−6.80). Rookie WR Caleb Douglas picked up the slack with 5/7 targets for a game high 94 yards, the most ever in a Dolphin rookie debut. He finished at 14.4 FPTS, after being projected outside our top 72 WRs on Tuesday 9/8.
3 Projection Misses
Ja’Marr Chase, 3.20 vs. 20.90 proj (−17.70):
Chase carried the WR1 projection on the slate and finished with 2 catches on 4 targets for 12 yards, his lowest receiving yardage total since November 2023. Gesicki turned his 7 targets into 5 catches for 78 yards and Cincinnati’s only receiving TD, posting 18.8 FPTS against a 6.35 projection (+12.45) and leading the team in receiving. Joe Burrow was fine, going 25/35 for 254 yards with a TD and a pick for 16.16 FPTS (23.40 proj, −7.24). Cincinnati won 33-27, the revamped defense forced 4 turnovers and returned a strip sack for a TD. Tampa Bay got one back the other way when Jeremiah Trotter Jr. picked off Burrow and took it to the house. Bucs-Bengals came in at 6.54 MAE.
Colston Loveland, 0.00 vs. 12.30 (−12.30):
Two targets and zero catches in a 96 point game. Chicago only threw the ball 29 times, completing an efficient 21 passes for 269 yards around a receiving corps that barely resembled the projections. Cole Kmet took the TE production, turning 3 targets into 2 catches for 35 yards and a TD (11.5 FPTS). While Kalif Raymond led the team with 9 targets, 8 catches and 84 yards for 16.4 FPTS, without cracking the top 72 of our projected WRs. Loveland was projected TE6 on the week, and the only Bears skill position starter who didn’t touch the ball.
Jordan Addison, 0.00 vs. 10.50 (−10.50):
Another two target, zero catch day in a Minnesota win. The volume simply wasn’t there once Kyler Murray went out, with Wentz completing 12 passes for 133 yards and Justin Jefferson catching 8. What was left went to T.J. Hockenson, 4/5 targets for 13.6 FPTS (8.1 proj, +5.50) and both backs punched in TDs of their own. Jauan Jennings got the same treatment, missing his only target (6.81 proj, −6.81). 39 points and two goose eggs with the backup QB.
21 excluded players:
Left injured, didn’t return (7):
Sam Darnold (SEA, hip, first drive): 17.50 proj
A.J. Brown (NE, ankle Q3): 14.40 proj
De’Zhaun Stribling (SF, Q2): 6.76 proj
Kyler Murray (MIN, concussion Q1): 18.50 proj, −0.38 actual
Zay Flowers (BAL, hamstring at halftime): 14.50 proj, 26.00 actual
Ladd McConkey (LAC, chest): 13.40 proj, 19.20 actual
Dylan Sampson (CLE, ankle): 5.88 proj, 0.00 actual
Inactive, never played (14):
Brock Bowers (15.60), Tua Tagovailoa (15.30), Calvin Ridley (7.84), Jalen McMillan (7.71), Alvin Kamara (6.97), Malik Davis (4.52), Riley Leonard (4.42), Najee Harris (4.39), Ty Johnson (4.35), Zavier Scott (3.72), Kimani Vidal (3.69), Fernando Mendoza (3.30), Spencer Rattler (3.10), Shedeur Sanders (2.00).
Ten more players scored 8+ outside the top-X per position:
Carson Wentz (25.22), Drew Lock (14.78), Noah Fant (13.30), Demarcus Robinson (13.00), Cole Kmet (11.50), Josh Palmer (10.40), Josh Cameron (10.00), Mack Hollins (9.10), Pat Bryant (8.20), Elic Ayomanor (8.10).
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