NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2023: Late Games

Published by
November 13, 2023

NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2023): 5-10-1 (-$1,295)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2023): 5-9 (-$935)

2023 NFL Picks: 68-74-5 (-$7,675)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my
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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 13, 1:30 p.m. ET.
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11 Late Games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at San Francisco 49ers (6-3)
Line: 49ers by 10.5. Total: 42.

Sunday, Nov. 19, 4:05 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.

The 49ers play on Thanksgiving in four days, but they’ve recently lost three consecutive games.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -10.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Tons of action on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 77% (3,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Road Team is 127-89 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.
Buccaneers are 10-30 SU on the West Coast in franchise history.
Brock Purdy is 13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS.
Opening Line: 49ers -10.
Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick:

Seattle Seahawks (6-3) at Los Angeles Rams (3-6)
Line: Seahawks by 2.5. Total: 44.5.

Sunday, Nov. 19, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

The Seahawks play against the 49ers in four days.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Tons of action on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 74% (2,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

History: Rams have won 13 of the last 20 meetings.
Geno Smith is 3-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+. ???
Opening Line: Seahawks -2.5.
Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick:

New York Jets (4-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-4*)
Line: Bills by 6.5. Total: 40.5.

Sunday, Nov. 19, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -6.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 62% (2,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

History: Bills have won 13 of the last 20 meetings.
Josh Allen is 10-6* ATS off a loss since his second season. ???
Opening Line: Bills -6.5.
Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick:

Minnesota Viking (6-4) at Denver Broncos (3-5*)
Line: Broncos by 2. Total: 43.

Sunday, Nov. 19, 8:20 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: TBA.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -2.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

One-sided betting action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 89% (3,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Broncos are 34-17 ATS as home underdogs since 1991. ???
Russell Wilson is 32-15 ATS after a loss since his second season. ???
Russell Wilson is 33-15 ATS as an underdog. ???
Russell Wilson is 24-16* ATS in night games.
Opening Line: Broncos -2.
Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick:

Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
Line: Chiefs by 2.5. Total: 47.5.

Monday, Nov. 20, 8:15 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -2.5.

Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 54% (4,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
Eagles are 38-28 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.
Patrick Mahomes is 78-20 SU, 53-44 ATS (41-32 ATS when not favored by double digits.)
Andy Reid is 18-10 ATS off a bye.
Opening Line: Chiefs -2.5.
Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick:

week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games

Bengals at Ravens, Steelers at Browns, Bears at Lions, Chargers at Packers, Raiders at Dolphins, Giants at Redskins, Cowboys at Panthers, Titans at Jaguars, Cardinals at Texans

LOADING COMMENTS…

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks

A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games

NFL Picks – Sept. 11

Fantasy Football Rankings – Sept. 7

2024 NFL Mock Draft – July 25

NFL Power Rankings – June 2

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is
solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week’s NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)

Last Week’s 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 5-2 (+$865)

Last Week’s 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 0-1 (-$440)

Last Week Over-Under (Week 7, 2023): 5-8 ($0)

Last Week’s Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 7, 2023): -$495

2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-3, 0% (-$2,360)

2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 58-55-3, 51.3% (-$5,445)

2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-14-1, 57.8% (+$860)

2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 10-13, 43.5% (-$2,235)

2023 Season Over-Under: 52-54, 49.1% (+$100)

2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,435

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)

2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)

2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)

2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)

2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)

2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)

2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)

2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)

2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)

2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)

2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)

2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)

2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)

2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)

2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)

2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)

2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)

2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)

2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)

2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)

2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)

2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)

2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)

2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)

2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)

2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)

2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)

2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)

2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)

2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)

2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)

2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)

2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)

2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)

2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)

2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)

2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)

2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)

2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)

2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)

2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)

2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)

2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)

2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)

2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)

2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)

2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)

2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)

2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)

2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)

2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)

2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)

2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)

2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)

2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)

2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)

2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)

2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)

2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)

2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)

2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)

2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)

2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)

2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)

2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)

2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)

2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)

2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)

2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)

2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)

2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)

2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)

2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)

2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)

2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035

2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775

2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865

2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200

2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590

2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855

2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275

2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510

2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495

2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715

2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975

2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455

2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)

2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)

2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)

2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)

2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)

2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)

2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)

2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)

2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)

2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)

2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)

2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)

2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)

2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,347-3,080-191, 52.1% (+$23,955)

Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,079-962-53 (52.9%)

Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 535-470-24 (53.2%)

Career Over-Under: 2,774-2,763-71 (50.1%)

Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)

Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-33-1 (58.2%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record

This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read
each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 3-3
Bears: 4-2
Bucs: 3-3
49ers: 5-2
Eagles: 3-2
Lions: 4-3
Falcons: 5-2
Cardinals: 3-4
Giants: 3-4
Packers: 4-2
Panthers: 3-3
Rams: 4-3
Redskins: 6-1
Vikings: 2-4
Saints: 4-3
Seahawks: 2-4
Bills: 4-3
Bengals: 4-2
Colts: 3-4
Broncos: 2-3
Dolphins: 2-5
Browns: 3-3
Jaguars: 4-3
Chargers: 3-2
Jets: 3-3
Ravens: 5-2
Texans: 1-5
Chiefs: 3-3
Patriots: 2-5
Steelers: 4-2
Titans: 4-2
Raiders: 4-2
Divisional: 22-10 (2011-22: 558-526)
2x Game Edge: 13-12 (2011-22: 363-361)
2x Motivation Edge: 11-15 (2011-22: 478-405)
2x Spread Edge: 14-13 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 17-16 (2011-22: 407-406)
2x Trend Edge: 9-7 (2011-22: 306-279)
Double Edge: 10-6 (2011-22: 190-172)
Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-22: 32-36)


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2007 Preseason:
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2009 Season:
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2010 Preseason:
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2011 Preseason:
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2012 Preseason:
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2013 Preseason:
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Super Bowl XLVIII NFL Pick

2014 Preseason:
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2014 Season:

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Super Bowl XLIX Pick

2015 Preseason:
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2015 Season:

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Super Bowl 50 NFL Pick

2016 Preseason:
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2016 Season:

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Super Bowl LI NFL Pick

2017 Preseason:
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2017 Season:

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Super Bowl LII NFL Pick

2018 Preseason:
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